One of the vital drivers of a healthy economy in Vermont — tourism — has been hammered this year by a significant downturn in visitors to the state, especially from our close neighbors to the north in Canada.
Apparently, Canadians are reacting pointedly to the heated rhetoric and actions of the Trump administration, including the imposition of tariffs of up to 35% on goods coming into the country from the north, effective Aug. 1, and suggestions by President Trump that Canada should become “the 51st state.” Federal and state data, as well as market data provided to Vermont officials by a leading tourism research firm, suggest that Canadians are likely voting with their pocketbooks and travel plans in reaction to the policies emanating from Capitol Hill and the White House.
Border crossings of private vehicles entering Vermont from Canada were down about 8% in February, 30% in March and April, and nearly 40% in May, the most recent month in which complete federal and state data is available through the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development. (ACCD). (The data set includes the number of passengers entering Vermont through the state’s five border crossings, including those travelers of international origin and not just Canadians.)
In June, according to Travel Market Insights, an Albany, N.Y.-based firm that tracks monthly “travel intentions” data, 13.2% of Canadians reported being likely or very likely to visit the United States or were planning a trip within the next 12 months. For comparison, the average for all months in 2024 was 24%. The dip in travel intent by Canadians reached a new low in February of this year and has continued a slow decline ever since, according to the New York-based travel data analysis firm that contracts with the ACCD.
Drawing on data from the government-run Statistics Canada, raw counts of border crossings into Vermont in the first half of this year paint a stark portrait as well. In May, 112,200 passengers crossed the Canadian border into Vermont via checkpoints in Beecher Falls, Derby Line, Highgate Springs, Norton, and Richford. Roughly 6,400 of those visitors from the north arrived in Vermont by bus or train, according to federal and state reports. From the outset of 2025 through the end of May, passenger crossings into the state from Canada totaled 581,200 – a decline of 23.3% from the previous year.
In the local area, virtually all of the buzz about the decline in Canadian tourism is anecdotal — Woodstock and Upper Valley retailers and hospitality providers, as well as business organizations such as the Woodstock Area Chamber of Commerce and the Upper Valley Business Alliance in West Lebanon, don’t track visitors to the region by state or country of origin. “I think we are experiencing a little downturn in shoppers,” Beth Finlayson, the executive director of the Woodstock Chamber, told the Standard on Monday. “But businesses don’t want to appear all doom and gloomy about the situation. We’re still getting steady calls from people about foliage, as well as Wassail,” Finlayson said, alluding to Woodstock’s traditional holiday festival each December.
For more on this, please see our August 7 edition of the Vermont Standard.
